Electricity Contract Indexes January 2023, Issue 166

It appears that last month's all-time index peak was an anomaly, as the index fell almost 10% this month and returned to the trend line.

The FPVV index drove the main index higher last month but fell back again this month. On the other hand, the CFD index rose this month.

The contract market is strongly driven by the ASX electricity futures prices, which fell last month but then climbed up again this month. Once you get beyond the current and maybe next quarter, the futures prices are being driven at the margin by international coal futures prices; the link here is through the coal that is being imported from Indonesia to burn at the Huntly power station. Global coal prices surged after Russia attempted to invade Ukraine and Europe stopped buying Russian coal.

Coal prices could remain elevated for years as global coal trade works to find a new equilibrium.