The energy-related decisions we make today are based on many factors, key amongst them is the uncertain outlook for future prices. Uncertainty creates risk but also opportunity. We can never be totally certain about the future, but our forecasts provide valuable information for your big decisions, allowing you to work with a realistic range of potential future price scenarios.
We produce two forecasts on a regular basis using our EMarket electricity market model, both of which are widely subscribed:
- Monthly price forecast (PFC) which forecasts spot prices 12 months ahead.
- Quarterly price path (PP) which forecasts spot prices from two to 16 years ahead, with 10-year extension on the two versions of the Base Case scenario (one with the Tiwai Pt aluminium smelter remaining, one with it closing, and both available at three-hourly resolution).
Both forecasts cover 220 grid nodes, so we can deliver anything you need in respect of nodal spot prices. We can also deliver a wealth of information around generation, demand, fuel use, power flows, and so on.
While a forecast is essential to understanding price risk, developing one that is comprehensive and accurate requires the deployment of complex market models, an understanding of the related natural gas and carbon markets and the committed time of skilled team members. Our independent electricity and gas forecasts have set the industry standard since 1997 and are prepared using New Zealand’s fastest and most accurate market models. If you already produce your own forecasts, then Energy Link’s forecasts will provide you with an independent credibility check, and alternative views of the future.
Energy Link’s range of forecasts encompasses the short term and the long term. Every forecast includes a comprehensive report, standard and customised workbooks, access to video commentary and access to additional data from the online forecast database.
Monthly Price Forecast (PFC)
- Published on the first business day of every month (except January when it is published late December)
- Covers the coming 12 months with prices available at over 220 nodes
- Weekly updates during each month
- The expected prices and percentiles are taken from hundreds of scenarios which take account of demand, inflows, and other uncertainties over the coming year
For pricing and details contact Greg Sise, Managing Director
Quarterly Price Paths (PP)
- Published on the first business day of every quarter (except January when it is published late December)
- Covers 15 years from the following April
- Includes a 20-year wellhead price forecast for natural gas
- The expected prices and percentiles are taken from hundreds of scenarios which take account of demand, gas prices, carbon pricing, inflows, and other uncertainties over the forecast period
- Forecasts and other modelling to your unique specifications
- Variations on scenarios from the PFC or PP
- Customised forecasts or pool price modelling