The index fell 4.8% this month, following the falling trend in futures prices. Recent rain (deluges in many places) pushed lake levels up so that now NZ storage is about where it is expected to be at this time of year, on average. Storage is particularly healthy in Lake Taupo, but other major lakes are also at or above expected levels, with the exception of Lake Takapo.

We are about to enter the period of the year when inflows are expected to increase with spring snow melt and norwest storms, while at the same time demand starts to fall as temperatures start to rise. Of course, cold snaps can occur through August, and higher spring inflows are not guaranteed, but overall the outlook for prices for the next two to three months is for continued easing.