What probability did futures traders give to Tiwai staying?
We now know that the Tiwai smelter is likely to be around for another four years to December 2024; but prior to 14th January we didn’t know this. What do futures prices tell us about futures traders’ views of the probability of Tiwai staying longer than August 2021?
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Energy Link Contract Indexes January 2021, Issue 142
The FPVV sub-index went up this month, but the CFD sub-index went down. The net result was the main index more-or-less went sideways, increasing by just over 1% to 8.9 c/kWh.
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