A large correction was seen this month with the index increasing by 37.3% after last month’s sharp fall. We also saw a return to lower contract volumes after a spike, although this was expected with the lower prices in July being short lived.

With lake levels continuing to lead the headlines, after the mentioned settled August; September has been wetter and more unsettled than normal, resulting in falling spot and futures prices, this is likely to influence the index in October.

The current longer-term forecast suggests even though September has been wet and unsettled, the spring forecast overall is likely to be warmer with lower rainfall in the southern catchments, with a La Nina like pattern taking hold. We are also watching and waiting to see the impact of the Frontier Economics report.