Electricity Contract Index October 2025, Issue 199
After the large correction last month, we have seen an expected return just slightly over the average for the year.
We say expected because it hasn't stopped raining in October. With inflows above the 90th percentile for both Islands. this has been especially prevalent in the lower southern lakes Te Anau and Manapouri, which a both well above their maximums and will be spilling and generating for at least a couple of weeks in November.
The current longer-term forecast still suggests La Nina will play its part during the summer, but that had been forecast through September and October so it still remains to be seen.
The long awaited Frontier Economics report commissioned by the Government has bought little in the way of change for the industry and the market, so has had very little impact on the futures prices, with risk and volatility remaining through the medium to long term, especially when dry periods are forecast.