The Main index fell again this month to continue a run of gradual decline through spring and summer; this is in line with soft conditions in the market at the end of last year. Both the FPVV and CFD indexes have fallen similar amounts this month, with the CFD index slightly lower than the FPVV.

We are now a month closer to winter, and still hydro lakes are full and healthy, as we can always say it will stop raining, but as we move closer to winter that dry winter risk reduces. Another interesting point of note is some of the North and South Island price separation we have seen in January, with a few recent examples in the last 10 days.

Looking to impacts further out, this month Mercury's Ngā Tamariki 5th unit Geothermal began hot commissioning, on track to fully commissioned by March, potentially bringing up to 60 MW to reserves.