The index fell sharply by 15% this month, although there was a split between CFD and FPVV contracts with the former falling and the latter rising. After a long period of low volumes, this month 40 contracts are included in the indices, suggesting buyers held off until rising lake levels brought price expecatations down.

On the topic of lake levels, we are currently in an unusually long period of settled weather with low precipitation in the lake catchments, during which lake levels trended downward relative to expected (average) storage. As a result, spot prices and futures price have risen.

The current longer-term forecast suggests the settled weather is all but over, and that lake levels will recover. As always, the weather is uncertain, but unsettled weather often seems to follows settled weather. Just saying.