The main index remained flat at 15.9 c/kWh since mid-March, while the number of traded contracts almost tripled from 12 to 34, lead by consumers seeking FPVV deals while futures price were low and lake levels above average.

The price volatility in the ASX futures market, noted in the March report, abated as the threat of an energy shortage over the coming winter recedes. Prices for 36-month ASX strips are now at their lowest since late 2023.

At the recent Downstream conference, the then Minister for Energy projected confidence that an LNG terminal was both needed and likely.

Confidence appears to have waned after the energy portfolio was reallocated, with the Prime Minister suggesting a decision was yet to be made and would be based on an attractive commercial case being available; an outcome made less certain by the ongoing conflict in the Arabian Gulf. A recent report commissioned by the Gas Industry Company concluded deindustrialisation is inevitable even with LNG but much worse without. Others, such as the Sustainable Energy Association, maintain NZ should seek more future looking alternatives.

This, and other energy-related issues, are likely to be hot topics during the lead up to the next election; meanwhile calls for a cross-party NZ energy strategy grow.