Electricity Contract Index April 2025, Issue 193
The index took a large jump this month, driven by increases in both FPVV and CFD contract prices. FPVV prices tend to lag changes in futures prices by about six weeks, so it is no surprise the FPVV index rose this month, but the increase was a big step up.
There was one large FPVV contract that was not included in the index calculations this month, due to its price showing as $0.26/MWh, which may be an error. Whatever the reason for this price appearing, it is well out of the market and hence not included.
Over the month storage held more or less constant, which is good at this time of year when storage is expected to fall as we go into winter. As a result, futures prices eased off recent highs in the earlier quarters. If this trend continues, for example if the cyclone currently crossing the North Island brings rain to the west of the South Island, we could be looking at large increases in storage and much softer prices. But cyclones are hard to predict at the best of times, so we will just have to wait to see.